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魔兽战士那种天赋好

抵抗还原宣言:人工智能不是终极答案

????本文选自《设科志》(Journal of Design and Science),作者:伊藤穰一,中文版首发于微信公众号:神经现实(ID:neureality),翻译:嘉嘉,编辑:夏明明,封面:《攻壳机动队》,
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,大自然的生态系统为我们了解复杂适应系统( complex adaptive system)提供了完美案例。这个系统中恒河沙数的“货币”交互作用,并对反馈系统“在这样的反馈系统中,繁盛 (flourishing)和调控成为可能”作出响应。,
,复杂适应性系统不像我们目前的经济系统那样指数式地增长,也不符合“技术奇点”(the Singularity)理论的应许——技术进步可以解决目前人类社会的所有问题。我们应当让这样的合作模型,而非指数式增长模型,为我们发展人工智能提供范式。,
,六十多年以前,麻省理工学院的数学家、哲学家诺伯特·维纳(Norbert Wiener)警告我们:“如果我们像使用齿轮、杠杆和承轴那样,将人类死板地安排进那些使用他们的机构里,如果我们不把他们当成有负有责任的人类并尊重他们的权利,我们很容易就会忽略他们是有血有肉的人的事实。” 我们应该听从维纳的警告。,
,“货币”导致的癌症,
,太阳照射在地球上的时候,光合作用会将水、二氧化碳和太阳能转化成为氧气和葡萄糖。在许多将物质和能量由一种形式转化到另一种形式的生物、化学过程中,光合作用是其中之一。光合作用之后,这些分子会参与别的新陈代谢的生物化学过程,变成其他分子。,
,科学家们时常称这样的分子为“货币”,因为这样的“货币”使细胞间或多种生化过程间的互利“交易”得以实现。这类自然“货币”与金融意义上的货币之间的最大区别在于,对前者而言不存在“主货币”(master currency)或是“货币兑换”。与金融货币相对,每一种自然“货币”只能由特定的过程使用,这类货币通行的“市场”驱动着名为“生命”的动态。,
,当某些生物或生化过程产出的自然“货币”过于充裕时,其他的有机体便会演化出一种独特的机制,将这一“货币”转化为另一种“货币”。在数十亿年间,地球的生态系统以这样的方式演化,衍生出条条代谢通路错综交织的庞大系统,并形成了复杂的自调控系统(比如稳定我们身体系统抑或地球系统的温度)。,
,尽管从微观到宏观的个体元素一直在波动和变化,系统本身却能保持相对稳定。一个过程的输出变成了另一个过程的输入。最终,万事万物都相互关联,相互依存。,
,,—人类最主要的基本代谢途径,
,在我们的文明里,主要的“货币”是金钱和权力。在绝大多数情况下,我们的目标是同时积累这两种“货币”,不惜以牺牲社会整体利益为代价。和地球的生态系统比起来,我们的系统过分简单和脆弱。地球的生态系统有无数的“货币”,在不同的过程之间相互转换,从而构建出种种极为复杂的系统:其输入与输出经一系列反馈系统适应并调控着系统内的存量(stocks)、流量(flows)和关联(connections)。,
,不幸的是,我们现有的人类社会并不具有我们所处生态环境那样的韧性。,
,我们现有的范式给我们设定了目标并推动着社会的演变,然而它正将我们引向一个危险的方向——一个数学家诺伯特·维纳早在几十年前就警告过我们的方向。由于许多公司和机构只重视一种“核心货币”(金钱),它们失去了原初的目标和价值。营利性公司获得了自主性、正当性、权力和几乎不受控制的社会影响力,而我们的价值观和对复杂性的解读愈加集中在创造爆炸式的经济效益增长上。,
,这些公司增长的方式如同癌症:健康的细胞会调节其生长并响应周遭环境,而当它们误入自己所不属于的器官,它们甚至会自我清除。癌细胞则反其道而行,它们将无限制的生长和扩散置于首位,丝毫不顾自身的功能和所处环境。,
,驱策我们的皮鞭,
,这一想法像皮鞭般驱策着我们:我们存在的目的是进步,而进步需要不受控制的指数增长。在这样的思考范式下,现代公司在自由市场的资本主义体系中自然地产生了。诺伯特·维纳将这样的公司称为“血肉机器”,并将机械自动化称为“金属机器”。,
,近来硅谷建立了并运营着新一类超级公司(mega companies)比特机器(machines of bits),其背后站着一群笃信“科技奇点”教的人。这一新兴宗教的产生并不意味着我们的范式发生了根本变革,恰恰相反,这不过是指数增长崇拜与现代计算和科学结合后的自然演进。计算力指数式增长最终收敛于人工智能。,
,,图:RICHA BHATIA 'Do we have a shot at singularity in 2018?,
,提出“奇点”思维的是这样一群研究者:他们成功通过计算解决了那些一度被认为过于复杂而无法用机器解决的问题。于是他们坚信指数式增长的人工智能迟早会超越人类智力;人类一切既往的成就和目前的努力,与这样的智力相比都微不足道。,
,他们找到了帮助人类进行数字计算的完美拍档:一个看似可知、可控的思考与创造系统,它控制与处理复杂性的能力快速增长,给那些掌控它的人带来大量的财富和权力。在硅谷,这一技术狂热团体的从众思维(groupthink)及金融成功缔造了一个极端的正反馈系统,几乎不给负反馈调节留有余地(越是相信这样的奇点思维,越能积累物质财富并且创造出这样的文化氛围)。,
,这些人矢口否认他们对奇点思维的狂热信仰近乎宗教,并辩称他们的想法其实基于科学和证据。然而这些相信科技奇点的人其实空口无凭,他们在缺乏坚实证据情况下盲目推测事物的发展轨迹,臆想出了一幅未来图景。,
,奇点主义者相信世界是“可知的”,是可以通过计算模拟的,而且计算机有朝一日会有能力处理现实世界的杂乱无章——毕竟有那么多过去人们公认计算机无能为力的问题,最终都被解决了。他们相信,因为计算机在过去所向披靡,所以这个奇妙的工具必然在未来继续不负期望,直到我们超越已知的界限,甚至最终加速到冲破现实的“逃逸速度”。,
,人工智能正逐渐在驾驶汽车、诊断癌症、研究法庭文件等方面取代人类。于是他们相信人工智能会继续进步,最终和人脑结合成为一种全知全能的超级智能。对于那些虔诚的信徒来说,计算机可以增强人类的思维并将它延展到一种“超限生命”(amortality)的状态。(奇点理论的一部分是为“超限生命”斗争:虽然将来我们还是会死亡,还是无法永生,但我们不会再死于无情的衰老。),
,
,但是,如果超级公司的出现是我们超限的先驱,那么只有无可救药的傻瓜才会相信,更多的计算和生物黑客可以帮助我们解决世界上的所有问题,或者相信奇点最终可以破解人类。我们正梦想着有一天可以提升大脑性能,超越死亡,看得更高更远,但我们现在需要明白的是,巨型公司已经拥有了某种“超限生命”:只要收支平衡,它们就可以持续存在;并且它们作为整体远远超过了其部分之和——它们甚至可以被称为拥有超限生命的超级智能。,
,倘若真的寄希望于奇点带来美好结果,必须要存有这样的信念:系统在力量足够的情况下总能以某种方式掌握如何自我调控。即使其最终结果可能极为复杂,远非当前的人类所能理解,但“它”应当能够理解并“解答”自我。有些人认为,这样的智能会采取类似于前苏联计划经济式的总体规划/调配,但不同之处在于它将拥有全部信息和无限力量。,
,还有些人的构想稍成熟些,认为这样的智能会是一个分布式系统(distributed system)但所有的奇点主义者都或多或少相信,当我们有了足够的力量和控制的时候,世界是可以被驯服的。并非所有相信奇点的人都将其当作积极超越(positive transcendence)来膜拜,认为它能够带来永生和富足,但是他们都相信当所有曲线引向竖直之际,我们就迎来了审判日。,
,然而,不论你是在一条S形曲线还是钟形曲线上,一开始的斜率都看上去和指数曲线非常相似。在系统动力学研究者眼中,指数曲线意味着自我强化的过程,也就是说这是一条代表着无限加速增长的正反馈曲线。或许这就是让奇点主义者兴奋不已,也让系统论者恐惧不堪的原因。,
,绝大多数对奇点没有狂热崇拜的人都相信S形曲线,他们更喜欢自然适应和自我调控,比如当瘟疫扫过,增长会放缓,秩序会调整。当然,事物也许会和过去有所不同,相变可能会发生,但是,奇点这个想法——特别是那种像救世主或审判日一般,允许我们超越混乱痛苦的日常生活羽化登仙的“奇点”——本质上就有缺陷。,
,这样的还原主义的思维并不新鲜。在行为心理学家斯金纳(B.F. Skinner)发现并描述了强化反射原则后,人们依照他的理论设计了教育系统。如今研究学习的科学家们都知道,这种行为主义的方法在教学领域中的适用范围非常狭窄,可是仍然有大量的学校依靠死记硬背和题海战术教学。,
,还有个例子是优生学运动,它把遗传学在社会中起到的作用过度简化并扭曲了。优生学运动提供了一种还原主义的科学观,让人们以为可以人为推动自然选择来“修复人类”(fix humanity),甚至助燃了纳粹的种族屠戮计划。优生学的恐怖影响至今阴魂不散,以至于几乎任何关联遗传与智力之类的事物的研究都成了禁忌。,
,,在斯金纳箱中的实验小鼠 图:SciencePhotoLibrary,
,我们应该从历史中吸取教训,不要再把过度还原主义的科学运用于社会,而应如维纳所言,“停止亲吻抽打我们的皮鞭”。优雅地解释复杂事物,并将困惑还原为理解——这的确大大驱动了科学的发展,但我们同时也不能忘记爱因斯坦的名言,“万事万物都应该被尽可能地简化,但是不能再简化了”。,
,我们需要拥抱现实世界的不可知性,或言不可还原性,学着像艺术家、生物学家和那些深谙世界之纷乱的人文工作者一样思考。,
,我们都是参与者,
,维纳在冷战时期写下了《人有人的用处》。冷战期间资本主义和消费主义快速膨胀,太空军备竞赛方兴未艾,计算科技尚未成熟。那个时代的人们更容易相信一个复杂系统可以被外部环境所控制,而世界上的问题可以通过纯粹科学和工程的方法来解决。,
,那时维纳重点描述的控制论中的系统,是那些可以从客观视角控制并调控的反馈系统。该理论又被称为“一阶控制论”(first-order cybernetics),它假设作为观察者的科学家能够理解系统中正发生什么,因此工程师也能基于科学家的观察和洞见来设计系统。,
,如今我们可以更明显地看到,我们绝大多数问题——气候变化、贫困、肥胖、慢性疾病、现代恐怖主义等等——并不能简单地通过积累资源和强化控制来解决。其肇因在于上述问题其实是一系列复杂适应系统的结果,而这些系统恰恰是我们过去解决问题的工具所造成的,比如我们一直以来无止境地增加生产力并企图控制种种事物,反倒促发了我们现在所面对的问题。,
,在这个关头,我们引入了二阶控制论,也就是关于自适应(self-adaptive)复杂系统的控制论:这类系统中,观察者也是系统本身的一部分。正如凯文·斯莱文(Kevin Slavin)在《设计即参与》(Design as Participation)中所言:“你不是被困在交通堵塞里了——你就是交通堵塞。”,
,,,一阶和二阶控制论 图:Interactive Architecture Lab,
,为了有效应对我们这个时代的重大科学挑战,我认为我们必须将这个世界视为诸多相互交联的、复杂的自适应系统。这些不可知系统跨越不同的尺度和层级,但又与观察者和设计者密不可分。换句话说,我们是多重演化系统中的参与者,从微生物到我们的同一个体,再到社会和我们的物种,在不同尺度有着不同的适应度地形(fitness landscapes)。个体本身都是由层层嵌套的系统组成的,比如组成我们的细胞——其运作方式比我们更像系统层级的设计者。,
,虽然维纳在他的作品里讨论了生物演化和语言演化,他并没有详谈借助演化动力(evolutionary dynamics)推动科学发展。各个物种的生物演化(基因演化)由繁殖和生存驱动着,它们将生育和生长的目标及渴望灌输在我们体内。这样一个系统会不断演化以调控生长,增加多样性和复杂性,并提升其自身的适应性、稳定性和可持续性。,
,作为逐渐意识到更为广义的系统存在的设计者,我们所具有的目标和方法论是在我们的生物及社会背景下由演化和环境输入界定好的。然而,具有涌现智能(emergent intelligence)的机器有着与我们明显不同的目标和方法论。当我们把这些机器引入我们的系统,它们不仅会增强个体人类,更重要的是它们会整体地增强复杂系统。,
,
,现在我们已经可以明显地看到,人工智能的构想是有问题的:它所提议的那些形式、目标与方法均置于与其他复杂适应系统的交互作用之外。当我们谈到机器智能的时候,与其将它视为与人类相对立的智能,我们应该将其构想为一种人机交融的系统。我们需要的不是人工智能(artificial intelligence),而是延展智能(extended intelligence)。,
,与其企图控制、设计或是透彻了解系统,我们更应该着手设计能够参与的系统(systems that participate),这样的系统能在更为复杂的系统中成为有担当、能觉察、稳健的系统构成要件。如此,我们既是系统的设计者也是其组成部分,所以我们必须反思自己的目标和敏锐性(sensibilities),磨平自己高傲的棱角:我们需要的是谦逊,而不是掌权。,
,我们或可称之为“参与者式设计”(participant design)将系统设计为参与者,并且以参与者的身份设计系统。这样的系统里,我们追求的是提高系统的繁盛程度:保证系统充满健康和活力,而不是一味地扩张系统的规模或是权力。我们可以考察系统是否能创造性地适应变化,是否能保持坚韧,是否能以有趣的方式利用资源。,
,比起单纯地解决问题或力求效率最大化,更好的干预方式是发展我们的敏锐性,使其能够适应特定环境与时期。可以说,这样的干预更像是音乐而不是算法。音乐之美关乎敏锐性或言“品味”,源于大量元素结合而涌现出的新秩序。器乐的谱写能够促使或导致系统以不可预测,或完全自发的方式调整或运动,然而最终的产物仍是完整和谐的。甚至早有人想过用音乐本身干预系统。苏格兰作家、政治家安德鲁·弗莱彻(Andrew Fletcher)曾在1707年说:“让我谱写国家之歌吧,我不在乎谁制定法律。”,
,,图:Eric Nyffeler,
,如果你觉得用歌曲代替法律的想法太轻浮,别忘了音乐往往比法律更长寿。音乐在历史上许多暴力革命或和平变革中都起到了关键作用,音乐和它们所承载的价值被人们口口相传。关键不是音乐或符码本身,关键在于歌曲所运作的那个层次上的变革往往更为深刻。,
,许多思想家都曾谈到这一点,比如多内拉·米铎丝(Donella Meadows)认为,在干预复杂自适应系统时,改变系统参数甚至规则,都远不及改变系统的目标和范式来得有效。,
,
,当谈及我们对进步的崇拜,维纳说道:,
,
,这个世界依然坚信“大就是好”,依然不明白“过犹不及”;在这种情况下我们与其说“可持续性”是个尚待“解答”的问题,不如反思一下我们适应度函数中的价值观念与“货币”体系,追问它们是否真的适用于我们作为参与者所置身的系统。,
,结论:一个繁盛的未来,
,在伊丽莎白·安斯科姆(Elizabeth Anscombe)1958年的一篇文章中,繁盛(flourishing)是一个极为重要的概念。,
,如果我们想要发展人类敏锐性和繁盛的文化,并认可“成功”的衡量方式不止一种,我们就不能局限于权力和资源的积累,而应该注重多样化和经验的丰富性。这才是我们最需要的范式转换(paradigm shift)。这样才可能产生一个丰富的资源库,让我们可以利用其中的技术和文化模式,来创造一个高度适应性的社会。多样性能让系统里的各个元素相互回馈和支持,而不是像只有单一“货币”的单元文化(monoculture)那样充满剥削和掠夺的风气。这样的新文化会像音乐、时尚、灵性等艺术形式那样散播开来。,
,我是土生土长的日本人,最近我曾与一群初中生交流,我问他们该如何对待我们的环境,怎样才算是快乐,以及人类在自然中扮演什么角色,他们的想法让我备受鼓舞。我同样对电气电子工程师协会这样的组织满怀希望,它们创始之初的设计哲学是通过发展人工智能来提升人类的康乐,而不是扩大经济影响力。,
,彼得·塞利格曼(Peter Seligmann)、克里斯托弗·弗里拉蒂(Christopher Filardi)和玛格丽特·莫拉(Margarita Mora)在国际自然保育组织的工作也充满创造力而且令人兴奋,因为他们支持原住民的繁荣发展来保护环境,而不是阻碍他们的发展。,
,上世纪六七十年代,嬉皮士运动试图一道带动 “全球”运动(“whole earth” movement),然而如今我们又回退到了消费主义的社会。我希望并相信一场新的觉醒运动已在襁褓之中,而新的敏锐性会通过文化变革给我们的行为带来非线性的革新。虽然我们可以且应该继续致力于系统的每一个层面,进而构建一个更为坚韧的世界,但我相信文化层面的努力最有可能在根本上矫正我们的方向,让我们远离目前这条自我摧毁的道路。,
,我认为仍会由年轻人的音乐和艺术反映、放大一种新的敏锐性:向贪婪的世界说再见,让我们迎接“过犹不及”的新时代;向控制自然说再见,让我们在与自然的和谐共处中繁盛。,
,本文选自《设科志》(Journal of Design and Science),作者:伊藤穰一,中文版首发于微信公众号:神经现实(ID:neureality),翻译:嘉嘉,编辑:夏明明,封面:《攻壳机动队》

ben wen xuan zi she ke zhi Journal of Design and Science, zuo zhe: yi teng rang yi, zhong wen ban shou fa yu wei xin gong zhong hao: shen jing xian shi ID: neureality, fan yi: jia jia, bian ji: xia ming ming, feng mian: gong ke ji dong dui,,, da zi ran de sheng tai xi tong wei wo men liao jie fu za shi ying xi tong complex adaptive system ti gong le wan mei an li. zhe ge xi tong zhong heng he sha shu de" huo bi" jiao hu zuo yong, bing dui fan kui xi tong" zai zhe yang de fan kui xi tong zhong, fan sheng flourishing he tiao kong cheng wei ke neng" zuo chu xiang ying.,, fu za shi ying xing xi tong bu xiang wo men mu qian de jing ji xi tong na yang zhi shu shi di zeng zhang, ye bu fu he" ji shu qi dian" the Singularity li lun de ying xu ji shu jin bu ke yi jie jue mu qian ren lei she hui de suo you wen ti. wo men ying dang rang zhe yang de he zuo mo xing, er fei zhi shu shi zeng zhang mo xing, wei wo men fa zhan ren gong zhi neng ti gong fan shi.,, liu shi duo nian yi qian, ma sheng li gong xue yuan de shu xue jia zhe xue jia nuo bo te wei na Norbert Wiener jing gao wo men:" ru guo wo men xiang shi yong chi lun gang gan he cheng zhou na yang, jiang ren lei si ban di an pai jin nei xie shi yong ta men de ji gou li, ru guo wo men bu ba ta men dang cheng you fu you ze ren de ren lei bing zun zhong ta men de quan li, wo men hen rong yi jiu hui hu lue ta men shi you xue you rou de ren de shi shi." wo men ying gai ting cong wei na de jing gao.,," huo bi" dao zhi de ai zheng,, tai yang zhao she zai di qiu shang de shi hou, guang he zuo yong hui jiang shui er yang hua tan he tai yang neng zhuan hua cheng wei yang qi he pu tao tang. zai xu duo jiang wu zhi he neng liang you yi zhong xing shi zhuan hua dao ling yi zhong xing shi de sheng wu hua xue guo cheng zhong, guang he zuo yong shi qi zhong zhi yi. guang he zuo yong zhi hou, zhei xie fen zi hui can yu bie de xin chen dai xie de sheng wu hua xue guo cheng, bian cheng qi ta fen zi.,, ke xue jia men shi chang cheng zhe yang de fen zi wei" huo bi", yin wei zhe yang de" huo bi" shi xi bao jian huo duo zhong sheng hua guo cheng jian de hu li" jiao yi" de yi shi xian. zhe lei zi ran" huo bi" yu jin rong yi yi shang de huo bi zhi jian de zui da qu bie zai yu, dui qian zhe er yan bu cun zai" zhu huo bi" master currency huo shi" huo bi dui huan". yu jin rong huo bi xiang dui, mei yi zhong zi ran" huo bi" zhi neng you te ding de guo cheng shi yong, zhe lei huo bi tong xing de" shi chang" qu dong zhe ming wei" sheng ming" de dong tai.,, dang mou xie sheng wu huo sheng hua guo cheng chan chu de zi ran" huo bi" guo yu chong yu shi, qi ta de you ji ti bian hui yan hua chu yi zhong du te de ji zhi, jiang zhe yi" huo bi" zhuan hua wei ling yi zhong" huo bi". zai shu shi yi nian jian, di qiu de sheng tai xi tong yi zhe yang de fang shi yan hua, yan sheng chu tiao tiao dai xie tong lu cuo zong jiao zhi de pang da xi tong, bing xing cheng le fu za de zi tiao kong xi tong bi ru wen ding wo men shen ti xi tong yi huo di qiu xi tong de wen du.,, jin guan cong wei guan dao hong guan de ge ti yuan su yi zhi zai bo dong he bian hua, xi tong ben shen que neng bao chi xiang dui wen ding. yi ge guo cheng de shu chu bian cheng le ling yi ge guo cheng de shu ru. zui zhong, wan shi wan wu dou xiang hu guan lian, xiang hu yi cun.,,, ren lei zui zhu yao de ji ben dai xie tu jing,, zai wo men de wen ming li, zhu yao de" huo bi" shi jin qian he quan li. zai jue da duo shu qing kuang xia, wo men de mu biao shi tong shi ji lei zhe liang zhong" huo bi", bu xi yi xi sheng she hui zheng ti li yi wei dai jia. he di qiu de sheng tai xi tong bi qi lai, wo men de xi tong guo fen jian dan he cui ruo. di qiu de sheng tai xi tong you wu shu de" huo bi", zai bu tong de guo cheng zhi jian xiang hu zhuan huan, cong er gou jian chu zhong zhong ji wei fu za de xi tong: qi shu ru yu shu chu jing yi xi lie fan kui xi tong shi ying bing tiao kong zhe xi tong nei de cun liang stocks liu liang flows he guan lian connections.,, bu xing de shi, wo men xian you de ren lei she hui bing bu ju you wo men suo chu sheng tai huan jing na yang de ren xing.,, wo men xian you de fan shi gei wo men she ding le mu biao bing tui dong zhe she hui de yan bian, ran er ta zheng jiang wo men yin xiang yi ge wei xian de fang xiang yi ge shu xue jia nuo bo te wei na zao zai ji shi nian qian jiu jing gao guo wo men de fang xiang. you yu xu duo gong si he ji gou zhi zhong shi yi zhong" he xin huo bi" jin qian, ta men shi qu le yuan chu de mu biao he jia zhi. ying li xing gong si huo de le zi zhu xing zheng dang xing quan li he ji hu bu shou kong zhi de she hui ying xiang li, er wo men de jia zhi guan he dui fu za xing de jie du yu jia ji zhong zai chuang zao bao zha shi de jing ji xiao yi zeng zhang shang.,, zhei xie gong si zeng zhang de fang shi ru tong ai zheng: jian kang de xi bao hui tiao jie qi sheng zhang bing xiang ying zhou zao huan jing, er dang ta men wu ru zi ji suo bu shu yu de qi guan, ta men shen zhi hui zi wo qing chu. ai xi bao ze fan qi dao er xing, ta men jiang wu xian zhi de sheng zhang he kuo san zhi yu shou wei, si hao bu gu zi shen de gong neng he suo chu huan jing.,, qu ce wo men de pi bian,, zhe yi xiang fa xiang pi bian ban qu ce zhe wo men: wo men cun zai de mu di shi jin bu, er jin bu xu yao bu shou kong zhi de zhi shu zeng zhang. zai zhe yang de si kao fan shi xia, xian dai gong si zai zi you shi chang de zi ben zhu yi ti xi zhong zi ran di chan sheng le. nuo bo te wei na jiang zhe yang de gong si cheng wei" xue rou ji qi", bing jiang ji xie zi dong hua cheng wei" jin shu ji qi".,, jin lai gui gu jian li le bing yun ying zhe xin yi lei chao ji gong si mega companies: bi te ji qi machines of bits, qi bei hou zhan zhe yi qun du xin" ke ji qi dian" jiao de ren. zhe yi xin xing zong jiao de chan sheng bing bu yi wei zhe wo men de fan shi fa sheng le gen ben bian ge, qia qia xiang fan, zhe bu guo shi zhi shu zeng zhang chong bai yu xian dai ji suan he ke xue jie he hou de zi ran yan jin. ji suan li zhi shu shi zeng zhang zui zhong shou lian yu ren gong zhi neng.,,, tu: RICHA BHATIA 39 Do we have a shot at singularity in 2018?,, ti chu" qi dian" si wei de shi zhe yang yi qun yan jiu zhe: ta men cheng gong tong guo ji suan jie jue le nei xie yi du bei ren wei guo yu fu za er wu fa yong ji qi jie jue de wen ti. yu shi ta men jian xin zhi shu shi zeng zhang de ren gong zhi neng chi zao hui chao yue ren lei zhi li ren lei yi qie ji wang de cheng jiu he mu qian de nu li, yu zhe yang de zhi li xiang bi dou wei bu zu dao.,, ta men zhao dao le bang zhu ren lei jin xing shu zi ji suan de wan mei pai dang: yi ge kan si ke zhi ke kong de si kao yu chuang zao xi tong, ta kong zhi yu chu li fu za xing de neng li kuai su zeng zhang, gei nei xie zhang kong ta de ren dai lai da liang de cai fu he quan li. zai gui gu, zhe yi ji shu kuang re tuan ti de cong zhong si wei groupthink ji jin rong cheng gong di zao le yi ge ji duan di zheng fan kui xi tong, ji hu bu gei fu fan kui tiao jie liu you yu di yue shi xiang xin zhe yang de qi dian si wei, yue neng ji lei wu zhi cai fu bing qie chuang zao chu zhe yang de wen hua fen wei.,, zhei xie ren shi kou fou ren ta men dui qi dian si wei de kuang re xin yang jin hu zong jiao, bing bian cheng ta men de xiang fa qi shi ji yu ke xue he zheng ju. ran er zhei xie xiang xin ke ji qi dian de ren qi shi kong kou wu ping, ta men zai que fa jian shi zheng ju qing kuang xia mang mu tui ce shi wu de fa zhan gui ji, yi xiang chu le yi fu wei lai tu jing.,, qi dian zhu yi zhe xiang xin shi jie shi" ke zhi de", shi ke yi tong guo ji suan mo ni de, er qie ji suan ji you zhao yi ri hui you neng li chu li xian shi shi jie de za luan wu zhang bi jing you na me duo guo qu ren men gong ren ji suan ji wu neng wei li de wen ti, zui zhong dou bei jie jue le. ta men xiang xin, yin wei ji suan ji zai guo qu suo xiang pi mi, suo yi zhe ge qi miao de gong ju bi ran zai wei lai ji xu bu fu qi wang, zhi dao wo men chao yue yi zhi de jie xian, shen zhi zui zhong jia su dao chong po xian shi de" tao yi su du".,, ren gong zhi neng zheng zhu jian zai jia shi qi che zhen duan ai zheng yan jiu fa ting wen jian deng fang mian qu dai ren lei. yu shi ta men xiang xin ren gong zhi neng hui ji xu jin bu, zui zhong he ren nao jie he cheng wei yi zhong quan zhi quan neng de chao ji zhi neng. dui yu nei xie qian cheng de xin tu lai shuo, ji suan ji ke yi zeng qiang ren lei de si wei bing jiang ta yan zhan dao yi zhong" chao xian sheng ming" amortality de zhuang tai. qi dian li lun de yi bu fen shi wei" chao xian sheng ming" dou zheng: sui ran jiang lai wo men hai shi hui si wang, hai shi wu fa yong sheng, dan wo men bu hui zai si yu wu qing de shuai lao.,,, dan shi, ru guo chao ji gong si de chu xian shi wo men chao xian de xian qu, na me zhi you wu ke jiu yao de sha gua cai hui xiang xin, geng duo de ji suan he sheng wu hei ke ke yi bang zhu wo men jie jue shi jie shang de suo you wen ti, huo zhe xiang xin qi dian zui zhong ke yi po jie ren lei. wo men zheng meng xiang zhe you yi tian ke yi ti sheng da nao xing neng, chao yue si wang, kan de geng gao geng yuan, dan wo men xian zai xu yao ming bai de shi, ju xing gong si yi jing yong you le mou zhong" chao xian sheng ming": zhi yao shou zhi ping heng, ta men jiu ke yi chi xu cun zai bing qie ta men zuo wei zheng ti yuan yuan chao guo le qi bu fen zhi he ta men shen zhi ke yi bei cheng wei yong you chao xian sheng ming de chao ji zhi neng.,, tang ruo zhen de ji xi wang yu qi dian dai lai mei hao jie guo, bi xu yao cun you zhe yang de xin nian: xi tong zai li liang zu gou de qing kuang xia zong neng yi mou zhong fang shi zhang wo ru he zi wo tiao kong. ji shi qi zui zhong jie guo ke neng ji wei fu za, yuan fei dang qian de ren lei suo neng li jie, dan" ta" ying dang neng gou li jie bing" jie da" zi wo. you xie ren ren wei, zhe yang de zhi neng hui cai qu lei si yu qian su lian ji hua jing ji shi de zong ti gui hua diao pei, dan bu tong zhi chu zai yu ta jiang yong you quan bu xin xi he wu xian li liang.,, hai you xie ren de gou xiang shao cheng shu xie, ren wei zhe yang de zhi neng hui shi yi ge fen bu shi xi tong distributed system. dan suo you de qi dian zhu yi zhe dou huo duo huo shao xiang xin, dang wo men you le zu gou de li liang he kong zhi de shi hou, shi jie shi ke yi bei xun fu de. bing fei suo you xiang xin qi dian de ren dou jiang qi dang zuo ji ji chao yue positive transcendence lai mo bai, ren wei ta neng gou dai lai yong sheng he fu zu, dan shi ta men dou xiang xin dang suo you qu xian yin xiang shu zhi zhi ji, wo men jiu ying lai le shen pan ri.,, ran er, bu lun ni shi zai yi tiao S xing qu xian hai shi zhong xing qu xian shang, yi kai shi de xie lv dou kan shang qu he zhi shu qu xian fei chang xiang si. zai xi tong dong li xue yan jiu zhe yan zhong, zhi shu qu xian yi wei zhe zi wo qiang hua de guo cheng, ye jiu shi shuo zhe shi yi tiao dai biao zhe wu xian jia su zeng zhang de zheng fan kui qu xian. huo xu zhe jiu shi rang qi dian zhu yi zhe xing fen bu yi, ye rang xi tong lun zhe kong ju bu kan de yuan yin.,, jue da duo shu dui qi dian mei you kuang re chong bai de ren dou xiang xin S xing qu xian, ta men geng xi huan zi ran shi ying he zi wo tiao kong, bi ru dang wen yi sao guo, zeng zhang hui fang huan, zhi xu hui tiao zheng. dang ran, shi wu ye xu hui he guo qu you suo bu tong, xiang bian ke neng hui fa sheng, dan shi, qi dian zhe ge xiang fa te bie shi na zhong xiang jiu shi zhu huo shen pan ri yi ban, yun xu wo men chao yue hun luan tong ku de ri chang sheng huo yu hua deng xian de" qi dian" ben zhi shang jiu you que xian.,, zhe yang de huan yuan zhu yi de si wei bing bu xin xian. zai hang wei xin li xue jia si jin na B. F. Skinner fa xian bing miao shu le qiang hua fan she yuan ze hou, ren men yi zhao ta de li lun she ji le jiao yu xi tong. ru jin yan jiu xue xi de ke xue jia men dou zhi dao, zhe zhong xing wei zhu yi de fang fa zai jiao xue ling yu zhong de shi yong fan wei fei chang xia zhai, ke shi reng ran you da liang de xue xiao yi kao si ji ying bei he ti hai zhan shu jiao xue.,, hai you ge li zi shi you sheng xue yun dong, ta ba yi chuan xue zai she hui zhong qi dao de zuo yong guo du jian hua bing niu qu le. you sheng xue yun dong ti gong le yi zhong huan yuan zhu yi de ke xue guan, rang ren men yi wei ke yi ren wei tui dong zi ran xuan ze lai" xiu fu ren lei" fix humanity, shen zhi zhu ran le na cui de zhong zu tu lu ji hua. you sheng xue de kong bu ying xiang zhi jin yin hun bu san, yi zhi yu ji hu ren he guan lian yi chuan yu zhi li zhi lei de shi wu de yan jiu dou cheng le jin ji.,,, zai si jin na xiang zhong de shi yan xiao shu tu: SciencePhotoLibrary,, wo men ying gai cong li shi zhong xi qu jiao xun, bu yao zai ba guo du huan yuan zhu yi de ke xue yun yong yu she hui, er ying ru wei na suo yan," ting zhi qin wen chou da wo men de pi bian". you ya di jie shi fu za shi wu, bing jiang kun huo huan yuan wei li jie zhe di que da da qu dong le ke xue de fa zhan, dan wo men tong shi ye bu neng wang ji ai yin si tan de ming yan," wan shi wan wu dou ying gai bei jin ke neng di jian hua, dan shi bu neng zai jian hua le".,, wo men xu yao yong bao xian shi shi jie de bu ke zhi xing, huo yan bu ke huan yuan xing, xue zhe xiang yi shu jia sheng wu xue jia he nei xie shen an shi jie zhi fen luan de ren wen gong zuo zhe yi yang si kao.,, wo men dou shi can yu zhe,, wei na zai leng zhan shi qi xie xia le ren you ren de yong chu. leng zhan qi jian zi ben zhu yi he xiao fei zhu yi kuai su peng zhang, tai kong jun bei jing sai fang xing wei ai, ji suan ke ji shang wei cheng shu. na ge shi dai de ren men geng rong yi xiang xin yi ge fu za xi tong ke yi bei wai bu huan jing suo kong zhi, er shi jie shang de wen ti ke yi tong guo chun cui ke xue he gong cheng de fang fa lai jie jue.,, na shi wei na zhong dian miao shu de kong zhi lun zhong de xi tong, shi nei xie ke yi cong ke guan shi jiao kong zhi bing tiao kong de fan kui xi tong. gai li lun you bei cheng wei" yi jie kong zhi lun" firstorder cybernetics, ta jia she zuo wei guan cha zhe de ke xue jia neng gou li jie xi tong zhong zheng fa sheng shen me, yin ci gong cheng shi ye neng ji yu ke xue jia de guan cha he dong jian lai she ji xi tong.,, ru jin wo men ke yi geng ming xian di kan dao, wo men jue da duo shu wen ti qi hou bian hua pin kun fei pang man xing ji bing xian dai kong bu zhu yi deng deng bing bu neng jian dan di tong guo ji lei zi yuan he qiang hua kong zhi lai jie jue. qi zhao yin zai yu shang shu wen ti qi shi shi yi xi lie fu za shi ying xi tong de jie guo, er zhei xie xi tong qia qia shi wo men guo qu jie jue wen ti de gong ju suo zao cheng de, bi ru wo men yi zhi yi lai wu zhi jing di zeng jia sheng chan li bing qi tu kong zhi zhong zhong shi wu, fan dao cu fa le wo men xian zai suo mian dui de wen ti.,, zai zhe ge guan tou, wo men yin ru le er jie kong zhi lun, ye jiu shi guan yu zi shi ying selfadaptive fu za xi tong de kong zhi lun: zhe lei xi tong zhong, guan cha zhe ye shi xi tong ben shen de yi bu fen. zheng ru kai wen si lai wen Kevin Slavin zai she ji ji can yu Design as Participation zhong suo yan:" ni bu shi bei kun zai jiao tong du se li le ni jiu shi jiao tong du se.",,,, yi jie he er jie kong zhi lun tu: Interactive Architecture Lab,, wei le you xiao ying dui wo men zhe ge shi dai de zhong da ke xue tiao zhan, wo ren wei wo men bi xu jiang zhe ge shi jie shi wei zhu duo xiang hu jiao lian de fu za de zi shi ying xi tong. zhei xie bu ke zhi xi tong kua yue bu tong de chi du he ceng ji, dan you yu guan cha zhe he she ji zhe mi bu ke fen. huan ju hua shuo, wo men shi duo chong yan hua xi tong zhong de can yu zhe, cong wei sheng wu dao wo men de tong yi ge ti, zai dao she hui he wo men de wu zhong, zai bu tong chi du you zhe bu tong de shi ying du di xing fitness landscapes. ge ti ben shen dou shi you ceng ceng qian tao de xi tong zu cheng de, bi ru zu cheng wo men de xi bao qi yun zuo fang shi bi wo men geng xiang xi tong ceng ji de she ji zhe.,, sui ran wei na zai ta de zuo pin li tao lun le sheng wu yan hua he yu yan yan hua, ta bing mei you xiang tan jie zhu yan hua dong li evolutionary dynamics tui dong ke xue fa zhan. ge ge wu zhong de sheng wu yan hua ji yin yan hua you fan zhi he sheng cun qu dong zhe, ta men jiang sheng yu he sheng zhang de mu biao ji ke wang guan shu zai wo men ti nei. zhe yang yi ge xi tong hui bu duan yan hua yi tiao kong sheng zhang, zeng jia duo yang xing he fu za xing, bing ti sheng qi zi shen de shi ying xing wen ding xing he ke chi xu xing.,, zuo wei zhu jian yi shi dao geng wei guang yi de xi tong cun zai de she ji zhe, wo men suo ju you de mu biao he fang fa lun shi zai wo men de sheng wu ji she hui bei jing xia you yan hua he huan jing shu ru jie ding hao de. ran er, ju you yong xian zhi neng emergent intelligence de ji qi you zhe yu wo men ming xian bu tong de mu biao he fang fa lun. dang wo men ba zhei xie ji qi yin ru wo men de xi tong, ta men bu jin hui zeng qiang ge ti ren lei, geng zhong yao de shi ta men hui zheng ti di zeng qiang fu za xi tong.,,, xian zai wo men yi jing ke yi ming xian di kan dao, ren gong zhi neng de gou xiang shi you wen ti de: ta suo ti yi de nei xie xing shi mu biao yu fang fa jun zhi yu yu qi ta fu za shi ying xi tong de jiao hu zuo yong zhi wai. dang wo men tan dao ji qi zhi neng de shi hou, yu qi jiang ta shi wei yu ren lei xiang dui li de zhi neng, wo men ying gai jiang qi gou xiang wei yi zhong ren ji jiao rong de xi tong. wo men xu yao de bu shi ren gong zhi neng artificial intelligence, er shi yan zhan zhi neng extended intelligence.,, yu qi qi tu kong zhi she ji huo shi tou che liao jie xi tong, wo men geng ying gai zhao shou she ji neng gou can yu de xi tong systems that participate, zhe yang de xi tong neng zai geng wei fu za de xi tong zhong cheng wei you dan dang neng jue cha wen jian de xi tong gou cheng yao jian. ru ci, wo men ji shi xi tong de she ji zhe ye shi qi zu cheng bu fen, suo yi wo men bi xu fan si zi ji de mu biao he min rui xing sensibilities, mo ping zi ji gao ao de leng jiao: wo men xu yao de shi qian xun, er bu shi zhang quan.,, wo men huo ke cheng zhi wei" can yu zhe shi she ji" participant design: jiang xi tong she ji wei can yu zhe, bing qie yi can yu zhe de shen fen she ji xi tong. zhe yang de xi tong li, wo men zhui qiu de shi ti gao xi tong de fan sheng cheng du: bao zheng xi tong chong man jian kang he huo li, er bu shi yi wei di kuo zhang xi tong de gui mo huo shi quan li. wo men ke yi kao cha xi tong shi fou neng chuang zao xing di shi ying bian hua, shi fou neng bao chi jian ren, shi fou neng yi you qu de fang shi li yong zi yuan.,, bi qi dan chun di jie jue wen ti huo li qiu xiao lv zui da hua, geng hao de gan yu fang shi shi fa zhan wo men de min rui xing, shi qi neng gou shi ying te ding huan jing yu shi qi. ke yi shuo, zhe yang de gan yu geng xiang shi yin yue er bu shi suan fa. yin yue zhi mei guan hu min rui xing huo yan" pin wei", yuan yu da liang yuan su jie he er yong xian chu de xin zhi xu. qi le de pu xie neng gou cu shi huo dao zhi xi tong yi bu ke yu ce, huo wan quan zi fa de fang shi tiao zheng huo yun dong, ran er zui zhong de chan wu reng shi wan zheng he xie de. shen zhi zao you ren xiang guo yong yin yue ben shen gan yu xi tong. su ge lan zuo jia zheng zhi jia an de lu fu lai che Andrew Fletcher ceng zai 1707 nian shuo:" rang wo pu xie guo jia zhi ge ba, wo bu zai hu shui zhi ding fa lv.",,, tu: Eric Nyffeler,, ru guo ni jue de yong ge qu dai ti fa lv de xiang fa tai qing fu, bie wang le yin yue wang wang bi fa lv geng chang shou. yin yue zai li shi shang xu duo bao li ge ming huo he ping bian ge zhong dou qi dao le guan jian zuo yong, yin yue he ta men suo cheng zai de jia zhi bei ren men kou kou xiang chuan. guan jian bu shi yin yue huo fu ma ben shen, guan jian zai yu ge qu suo yun zuo de na ge ceng ci shang de bian ge wang wang geng wei shen ke.,, xu duo si xiang jia dou ceng tan dao zhe yi dian, bi ru duo nei la mi duo si Donella Meadows ren wei, zai gan yu fu za zi shi ying xi tong shi, gai bian xi tong can shu shen zhi gui ze, dou yuan bu ji gai bian xi tong de mu biao he fan shi lai de you xiao.,,, dang tan ji wo men dui jin bu de chong bai, wei na shuo dao:,,, zhe ge shi jie yi ran jian xin" da jiu shi hao", yi ran bu ming bai" guo you bu ji" zai zhe zhong qing kuang xia wo men yu qi shuo" ke chi xu xing" shi ge shang dai" jie da" de wen ti, bu ru fan si yi xia wo men shi ying du han shu zhong de jia zhi guan nian yu" huo bi" ti xi, zhui wen ta men shi fou zhen de shi yong yu wo men zuo wei can yu zhe suo zhi shen de xi tong.,, jie lun: yi ge fan sheng de wei lai,, zai yi li sha bai an si ke mu Elizabeth Anscombe 1958 nian de yi pian wen zhang zhong, fan sheng flourishing shi yi ge ji wei zhong yao de gai nian.,, ru guo wo men xiang yao fa zhan ren lei min rui xing he fan sheng de wen hua, bing ren ke" cheng gong" de heng liang fang shi bu zhi yi zhong, wo men jiu bu neng ju xian yu quan li he zi yuan de ji lei, er ying gai zhu zhong duo yang hua he jing yan de feng fu xing. zhe cai shi wo men zui xu yao de fan shi zhuan huan paradigm shift. zhe yang cai ke neng chan sheng yi ge feng fu de zi yuan ku, rang wo men ke yi li yong qi zhong de ji shu he wen hua mo shi, lai chuang zao yi ge gao du shi ying xing de she hui. duo yang xing neng rang xi tong li de ge ge yuan su xiang hu hui kui he zhi chi, er bu shi xiang zhi you dan yi" huo bi" de dan yuan wen hua monoculture na yang chong man bo xue he lue duo de feng qi. zhe yang de xin wen hua hui xiang yin yue shi shang ling xing deng yi shu xing shi na yang san bo kai lai.,, wo shi tu sheng tu zhang de ri ben ren, zui jin wo ceng yu yi qun chu zhong sheng jiao liu, wo wen ta men gai ru he dui dai wo men de huan jing, zen yang cai suan shi kuai le, yi ji ren lei zai zi ran zhong ban yan shen me jue se, ta men de xiang fa rang wo bei shou gu wu. wo tong yang dui dian qi dian zi gong cheng shi xie hui zhe yang de zu zhi man huai xi wang, ta men chuang shi zhi chu de she ji zhe xue shi tong guo fa zhan ren gong zhi neng lai ti sheng ren lei de kang le, er bu shi kuo da jing ji ying xiang li.,, bi de sai li ge man Peter Seligmann ke li si tuo fu fu li la di Christopher Filardi he ma ge li te mo la Margarita Mora zai guo ji zi ran bao yu zu zhi de gong zuo ye chong man chuang zao li er qie ling ren xing fen, yin wei ta men zhi chi yuan zhu min de fan rong fa zhan lai bao hu huan jing, er bu shi zu ai ta men de fa zhan.,, shang shi ji liu qi shi nian dai, xi pi shi yun dong shi tu yi dao dai dong " quan qiu" yun dong" whole earth" movement, ran er ru jin wo men you hui tui dao le xiao fei zhu yi de she hui. wo xi wang bing xiang xin yi chang xin de jue xing yun dong yi zai qiang bao zhi zhong, er xin de min rui xing hui tong guo wen hua bian ge gei wo men de xing wei dai lai fei xian xing de ge xin. sui ran wo men ke yi qie ying gai ji xu zhi li yu xi tong de mei yi ge ceng mian, jin er gou jian yi ge geng wei jian ren de shi jie, dan wo xiang xin wen hua ceng mian di nu li zui you ke neng zai gen ben shang jiao zheng wo men de fang xiang, rang wo men yuan li mu qian zhe tiao zi wo cui hui de dao lu.,, wo ren wei reng hui you nian qing ren de yin yue he yi shu fan ying fang da yi zhong xin de min rui xing: xiang tan lan de shi jie shuo zai jian, rang wo men ying jie" guo you bu ji" de xin shi dai xiang kong zhi zi ran shuo zai jian, rang wo men zai yu zi ran de he xie gong chu zhong fan sheng.,, ben wen xuan zi she ke zhi Journal of Design and Science, zuo zhe: yi teng rang yi, zhong wen ban shou fa yu wei xin gong zhong hao: shen jing xian shi ID: neureality, fan yi: jia jia, bian ji: xia ming ming, feng mian: gong ke ji dong dui

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